Earthquakes are one of the natural phenomena that pose a major threat to Slovenia, as the most earthquake-prone areas have high population density and relatively old buildings. In the event of a major earthquake, which cannot be ruled out anywhere in the country, significant damage to property and many deaths can be expected, especially in major cities, experts warned at today's consultation on (the lack of) earthquake safety, held at Triglav Lab. They also highlighted the inadequate awareness of the risks of earthquakes in Slovenia, and explained how the population should improve earthquake safety and protect themselves from such a threat.
An earthquake is one of those natural phenomena that cannot be predicted in advance, controlled or prevented, so one of the most important questions is how we can prepare for it. This was the topic of today’s event titled Prepared for the (Un)Predictable: On the Earthquake Fault Line, held at Triglav Lab.
Ljubljana and its surroundings are the most vulnerable to earthquakes
“Since an earthquake cannot be predicted, its consequences can only be mitigated by complying with earthquake-resistant building regulations and by being prepared for an earthquake – by knowing what to do before, during and after it,” explained Dr Barbara Šket Motnikar, a seismologist at the Slovenian Environment Agency. According to Dr Šket Motnikar, nearly 100 active earthquake faults have been recorded in Slovenia and the surrounding area. The most dangerous areas for seismic activity are on the border with Italy, west of Bovec (with high seismic activity in the nearby Friuli region), the area around Idrija (the most important Dinaric faults, and the location of the strongest earthquake in Slovenia’s history) and the area around Brežice, where there are many moderate earthquakes. Due to the high population density, Ljubljana and its surroundings are the most at risk from earthquakes. The seismologist added that a strong earthquake cannot be ruled out anywhere in Slovenia.
Slovenia is not earthquake-proof
“Earthquake engineering has evolved to the point where it is possible to estimate the average damage from earthquakes on an annual basis, or the probability of damage occurring over a selected period of time, either for a single building or for a selected area of the built environment. This opens up new possibilities for earthquake risk management. The seismic risk for the existing built environment is not regulated in Slovenia, although seismic risk management is particularly important for small communities located in earthquake-prone areas and with limited resources for reconstruction in the event of a strong earthquake in critical areas,” explained Dr Matjaž Dolšek, a professor at the Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering, University of Ljubljana. Dr Dolšek said that Slovenia is a country that can still not be considered earthquake-resistant.
An expert analysis shows that between 88,000 and 228,000 people in Slovenia live in buildings that are at high risk from earthquakes. In the event of an approximate repeat of the 1895 Ljubljana earthquake in 2020, the median direct damage to buildings was estimated at EUR 7.2 billion, according to the Resolution on Strengthening Earthquake Safety by 2050 “Let's Get Ahead of the Earthquake” (hereafter: the Resolution). Dr Dolšek estimates that, due to higher construction costs, such damage would amount to around EUR 9 billion today.
He stated that in the coming years it will be necessary to increase the proportion of buildings that have also been subject to computational earthquake resistance assessments, and are thus ready to undergo comprehensive renovation, provided that adequate sources of funding are secured.
(Source: the Resolution)
Legislation should be adopted to gradually transfer the responsibility for earthquake risks to property owners, Dr Dolšek added. He also said that it would make sense to bring information about the risk of earthquakes closer to people, such as by introducing earthquake cards. Based on this information, earthquake risk management should be regulated in such a way that owners reduce the risks in the long term by strengthening buildings or carrying out new construction, with the state also helping.
Awareness of earthquake risks is inadequate
“The awareness of the population about the risk of earthquakes and the damage they can cause is inadequate, which is also reflected in the low rate of earthquake insurance,” noted Peter Filip Jakopič, Director UW and PD for property and casualty at Zavarovalnica Triglav. According to the insurance company's data, only about one-third of all insured residential buildings in Slovenia are covered by earthquake insurance, while the share for commercial, production and similar buildings is about one-quarter. Awareness of the risk of earthquakes, and therefore the share of insurance policies taken out, increases after strong earthquakes, especially if they occur in Slovenia’s immediate vicinity, such as the earthquakes in Zagreb and Petrinja in Croatia in 2020, explained Jakopič. He added that in some countries insurance against natural disasters, and thus against earthquakes, is compulsory for all owners who insure their properties.
Earthquake damage at Zavarovalnica Triglav is covered by earthquake insurance, which customers can take out in addition to other property insurance. This also covers damage caused by indirect earthquake hazards such as fires or explosions. In addition to buildings, equipment and other movable property can also be covered, as well as the financial consequences of any business interruption caused by an earthquake.
The floods and storms that hit Slovenia in the summer of 2023, and caused historically high damage, highlighted the wisdom, purpose and importance of adequate insurance against natural disasters. Zavarovalnica Triglav therefore strives to help its policyholders assess which risks are most relevant to their properties and what insurance they should choose to ensure maximum financial security in the event of damage.
Last year's hail and wind storms caused more than EUR 85 million in claims in the Triglav Group, while the August storms with flooding resulted in claims in the amount of EUR 77 million. The total estimated value of Triglav Group's mass loss events in 2023 is EUR 212.2 million, almost ten times higher than in the entire decade before. In fact, in the period between 2013 and 2022, the average annual estimated value of such claims was almost EUR 23 million.
